The time is nearly here to find out who will be the next challenger to Anderson Silva’s middleweight title. The principals involved have been on their own journey, coming from different directions, but the destination—a title fight―is the same.

And on January 28^th, 2012, we are going to finally see which of these two men want the title shot more. Will it be Chael Sonnen, channeling his seemingly limitless disdain for Anderson Silva into a victory that will see him get his long sought rematch? Or will it be Michael “The Count” Bisping, who has been working hard and fighting harder, longing to find himself in title contention against arguably the best fighter, pound-for-pound, on the planet?

For Sonnen, this is more a matter of vindication. He talked a great deal of trash about Anderson Silva before their first bout, only to end up seeing what looked to be a sure victory slip out of his hands when he tapped out to a triangle choke midway through the final frame. Since that time, he has been fighting more out of the cage than in it, while Silva has made two more successful defenses of his title. Now, if he can defeat Michael Bisping, he will get a second chance at the title, and that fight would be held in front of the largest live audience for a mixed martial arts fight in the history of the sport. In fact, it could be the closest the sport of MMA has come to staging a fight that rivals Julio Cesar Chavez vs. Greg Haugen, which was held in a soccer stadium: Azteca Stadium, in Mexico. Chavez vs. Haugen pulled in a little over 130,000 people, and Silva vs. Sonnen II, held in Brazil, would be as close as MMA has ever come to such a benchmark.

Sonnen must defeat Bisping and then Silva if he wants to continue fighting with any real claim to legitimacy. If he loses either of these fights, the hype machine that Sonnen has been driving will be nothing more than a stalled car on the side of the road, waiting to be towed―possibly to the junk yard. Chael Sonnen is a fierce competitor, and losing to Bisping or Silva would probably be too much for him to handle. He’s been beating the war drum and claiming his greatness ever since he lost to Silva, and to lose to Bisping or Silva (again) would leave him singing his greatest hits to a world that simply knows better, and he won’t waste his time doing that. This is do-or-die for Sonnen.

For Bisping, this is all about validation. He came up from the ranks via winning the third season of The Ultimate Fighter, and since then, he has been the fighter of note from the United Kingdom. His last time against top flight competition ended up seeing him suffer one of the most brutal knock-out losses in the history of the company, thanks to the feared Dan Henderson “H-Bomb.” After Bisping hit the canvas, flat on his back and out cold, Henderson launched himself (and the term “Air Hendo”) into the air, landing another savage right hand that was nothing more than overkill. What’s worse is that it happened on the biggest card in MMA history―UFC 100―that pulled in 1.5 to 1.75 million PPV buys. There has always been a healthy rivalry between Americans and the English in the world of combat sport, and Air Hendo will be put up right alongside the Boston Tea Party as a point of pride for Americans (and pain for the English). Defeating Chael Sonnen (the only man in UFC history to dominate Anderson Silva for 4.5 rounds) would go a long way to balance out the loss to Henderson.

For a while now, pundits and critics (including myself) have liked Bisping overall, admiring his determination and work ethic while never really taking him seriously as a title contender. Bisping is charismatic, entertaining and always willing to scrap for every inch he gets, but the idea of Bisping being dangerous―really dangerous―has been contrary to our experience. But he is a winner, that much cannot be ignored; besides, the matador never looks as dangerous as the bull, even when the bull is bleeding to death in the sand. Say what you will, but Bisping has beaten some very dangerous fighters, and he’s done it without ever being in danger himself, and that is no small feat. Fighters like Chris Leben, Denis Kang and Jorge Rivera like to end fights with blunt force trauma, and Bisping was better than them all, which means that he is not afraid of the fight in fight sport.

With the 28^th only days away, all talk about Anderson Silva is nothing but smoke in the fog. Neither fighter can afford to look past the other, no matter how confident they sound in their pre-fight trash talk. When considering the match-up, there are many things that stand out, but there is one question that looms above all others: can Bisping stop Sonnen’s takedowns?

It might sound dismissive of both fighters to say the outcome rests on one single thing, but in the fight game, no matter the level of the fighters, it is usually the basics that carry the day.

For Chael Sonnen to win, he must take Bisping down and impose his top game. If he can do this, he will defeat Michael Bisping, if he cannot, he will most likely lose a decision. As experienced as Sonnen is, he is no where near the boxer that Bisping is, and Bisping has more power in his punches than Sonnen. Proof positive of this was the fact that Sonnen set a record for punches landed in a fight, against Anderson Silva, and Silva didn’t have a mark on his face. Chael may have convinced himself that he is the next Mike Tyson since he was able to knock Silva down a few times in their bout, but he’s not. When it comes to submissions, Sonnen looks to have improved, having choked out Brian Stann, but Sonnen has such a disdain for Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu that he seems only too happy to discount it, to his own detriment. He had lost three fights via triangle choke before the Anderson Silva fight and still never seemed to see the set-up coming. At this level, Sonnen should know that hubris hurts more than it helps. In Bisping he is facing a younger fighter who is more mobile and accurate with his fists and footwork, and chasing the younger man around the cage is going to see him eating jabs and lead rights all night long. He has to get Bisping to the ground and keep him there, or else he will be getting strafed from the outside repeatedly.

For Bisping, the question is the same: can he defend against Sonnen’s takedowns? If he can, he has a real chance at winning this fight, possibly with ease. Bisping is much more polished on his feet, but he has to be able to spend the kind of energy necessary to fight against any takedown Sonnen tries to employ, and Sonnen can take a fighter down from the clinch or the shot. That in itself is where the real trench warfare will be had: up close along the cage, pummeling and re-pummeling, turning and slipping, over and over. Should Bisping prove to have the level of energy needed to do that, he is going to have a very good chance of taking the win. Sonnen is going to be all over Bisping, working for the takedown like a man possessed, but if Bisping can stop those attempts consistently, then as the fight goes on the more desperate Sonnen will be, and desperate men get knocked out when they rush in.

With so much hanging in the balance, it looks to be an explosive fight. Real friction seems inherent to the style match-up, and that is where I think Bisping has the advantage, although only slightly. Bisping has been putting in a lot of work to improve his wrestling, especially after his fight with Matt Hamill. In short, Bisping has more advantages and ways to win than Sonnen does.

But still, in my gut, I go with Sonnen, simply because it seems he cannot afford to lose. A loss for Bisping, while heartbreaking, would not derail him from another shot down the line, possibly after Silva retires. Sonnen, on the other hand, needs to win just about every fight he has from here on out, and he knows it.

Let’s just hope the answers these men have come up with are worthy of the question, especially with the title and its champion waiting for the winner.